Joey Dixon has spent more time rehabilitating than pitching since the Houston Astros selected him in the seventh round of the 2023 MLB Draft. Two operations and a torn shoulder capsule later, the right-hander is finally getting an extended opportunity to show why Houston drafted him out of Stanford.
Dixon has delivered an encouraging response in the Arizona Fall League. Through four starts for the Scottsdale Scorpions, he has allowed three hits and three walks over eight scoreless innings while striking out 13. His fastball has generally sat between 95 and 97 mph, and his final pitch Tuesday registered 99.2 mph.
Those numbers will not vault Dixon into the Astros’ top-prospect rankings by themselves. For a pitcher who had accumulated only 7⅓ professional innings before the Fall League, however, simply taking the mound repeatedly represents meaningful progress.
A Professional Career Repeatedly Interrupted
Dixon arrived in Houston’s organization after three seasons at Stanford, where he went 15-4 with a 4.18 ERA across 71 appearances. He worked as both a starter and reliever, helping the Cardinal win consecutive Pac-12 championships in 2022 and 2023.
The Astros selected Dixon with the 224th overall pick in 2023, but his professional career barely began before injuries took over. He made one appearance in the Florida Complex League that year before undergoing Tommy John surgery in April 2024.
Continued elbow pain during his rehabilitation eventually required another operation in October 2025, this time to relocate a nerve. Dixon returned to game action with Single-A Fayetteville in May 2026 and threw 6â…“ innings over two starts, striking out 14 while allowing two earned runs.
Then his shoulder began hurting. Dixon attempted to pitch through the problem before learning that he had torn the capsule in his right shoulder. The injury ended his regular season after only two appearances.
Dixon’s Arsenal Has Survived the Injuries
The Fall League results are especially notable because Dixon’s raw stuff appears intact after the extended interruptions. In addition to the upper-90s fastball, he is working with a developing curveball and a changeup that gives him a potential three-pitch mix.
Astros director of player development Sam Niedorf told MLB.com that Dixon’s aggressive approach has stood out. Rather than pitching cautiously after so much time away, Dixon has attacked hitters with his best offerings and maintained his velocity.
The sample remains extremely small, and Fall League performance does not guarantee success during a full minor-league season. Dixon still must prove that his elbow and shoulder can withstand a regular workload. His command and secondary pitches will also require refinement after so much lost development time.
What Comes Next for Joey Dixon
Dixon will turn 25 on January 1, making him older than most pitchers with so little professional experience. His age matters, but his physical workload tells a different story: His arm has accumulated far fewer competitive innings than those of most pitchers from the same draft class.
The immediate objective is therefore health, not a rapid climb toward Houston. Dixon needs a normal offseason, an uninterrupted Spring Training, and consistent innings in 2027. His performance in Arizona has given the Astros a reason to keep watching, but it has not erased the considerable risk created by his medical history.
For an organization searching for pitching depth at every level, a healthy Dixon would be a welcome development. He remains a long-range project rather than an imminent major-league option, but eight scoreless Fall League innings have finally allowed the Astros to see the power arm they drafted more than three years ago.
