WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Joe Espada has been upfront about wanting to open the season with six starters. The math, however, is starting to complicate that preference.
With Josh Hader beginning the year on the injured list, Bryan Abreu slides into the closer role and the bullpen depth behind him immediately gets thinner. Carrying six starters means one fewer reliever on the active roster, a tradeoff that felt manageable when Hader was healthy and feels considerably more complicated now.
It’s the kind of cascading roster puzzle that makes a seemingly simple decision suddenly very consequential.
So what does Houston actually gain—and give up—with each option?
The Case for Six
The appeal of a six-man rotation is obvious given the current makeup of the staff.
Hunter Brown is the unquestioned ace and the only true lock. After him, Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows have been the most consistent arms in camp, but neither has faced major league hitters before. Cristian Javier is working through mechanical inconsistencies and is currently away from the team for personal reasons. Lance McCullers Jr. is showing encouraging signs but has made just 21 starts over the past four seasons. Spencer Arrighetti has been inconsistent this spring.
Six starters means shorter outings, more rest, and less pressure on any single arm. For a rotation with this many health and performance questions, that’s not nothing.
Scott Barzilla’s underlying numbers at The Crawfish Boxes tell the story: Nearly every starter on this staff carries question marks in at least one key category, whether it’s hard contact allowed, walk rate, or home run vulnerability. Keeping pitch counts manageable reduces the chances that those weaknesses get exposed.
The Case for Five
The counterargument is that a six-man rotation only works if all six arms are actually trustworthy.
Right now, that’s a generous assumption.
A traditional five-man rotation concentrates innings in your best pitchers and keeps your most reliable arms on a tighter schedule. It also preserves a bullpen spot—and with Hader sidelined, that spot suddenly has real value.
There’s also the ABS factor. With the automated ball-strike system now in play, command matters more than ever.
McCullers made that point himself after his outing against Baltimore, citing his nine first-pitch strikes in 13 attempts as the real victory of the day. Pitchers who live on the edges of the zone get less benefit of the doubt under ABS.
A five-man rotation featuring Brown, Imai, Burrows, Javier, and one of the remaining candidates concentrates the workload in the arms best equipped to handle that pressure.
The Wild Cards
McCullers and Arrighetti are effectively competing for the same job, with Ryan Weiss lurking as an option for either the rotation or long relief.
Peter Lambert, the non-roster invitee who has quietly impressed Dana Brown this spring, adds another swingman option that could make a six-man rotation more viable by providing a safety valve when things go sideways.
The decision likely won’t be made in isolation. Javier’s timeline, Arrighetti’s next few outings, and McCullers’ continued health will all factor in.
Espada has said the club has a good idea of who will start Games 2 and 3 against the Angels and plans to announce those decisions closer to Opening Day.
A Risk Management Question
What’s clear is that this isn’t just a roster construction question.
It’s a risk-management question.
The Astros have depth. Whether that depth is strong enough to justify spreading innings across six starters—while simultaneously absorbing the loss of their closer—is the most interesting baseball argument unfolding in West Palm Beach right now.
