Junior Caminero caught Yordan Alvarez on Saturday. Alvarez needed only a few hours to pass him again.
Caminero hit his 36th home run of the season for Tampa Bay, briefly pulling even with Alvarez for the American League lead. Later that afternoon at Citi Field, Alvarez sent his 37th into the right-center-field seats against the Mets and reclaimed the lead.
The home run did little to help the Astros, who lost 6-2. But with September approaching, it mattered considerably to a different race.
Alvarez enters Sunday leading the American League in all three Triple Crown categories. He’s batting .320, three points ahead of Luis Arraez at .317. His 37 home runs put him one ahead of Caminero’s 36, while his 93 RBI give him a one-RBI advantage over CJ Abrams. Saturday’s performance—2-for-3 with both Houston RBI—is also confirmed in the current game reporting.
Twenty-six games remain on Houston’s schedule, and Alvarez is still in position to become the first player to win the Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera did it with Detroit in 2012.
What once looked like an extraordinary season has become a genuine pursuit of baseball history. And with the finish line finally coming into view, Alvarez has almost no margin for error in any of the three races.
The Batting Race Has Tightened
Alvarez leads the American League with a .320 average, but Luis Arraez is right behind him at .317. Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson isn’t far away either at .311.
Three points is hardly a comfortable lead with nearly a month of baseball remaining. A couple of hitless games by Alvarez combined with a strong stretch from Arraez could change the order quickly.
Still, Alvarez has continued to hit even while his home-run production slowed during August. Saturday was another example. He went 2-for-3, drove in both Houston runs, and raised his average to .320.
He also enters Sunday with a .435 on-base percentage, .613 slugging percentage, and 1.048 OPS.
The batting race is far from settled. It’s another race Alvarez will have to keep running all the way through September.
The Home Run Race Is Now a Sprint
This is where Saturday became particularly interesting.
Caminero entered the day one home run behind Alvarez and hit No. 36, briefly tying him for the American League lead.
Then Alvarez answered.
His eighth-inning homer against the Mets restored his one-home-run advantage and gave him 37 with 26 games remaining.
And Caminero isn’t the only threat. Ben Rice has 35, leaving three American League hitters separated by only two home runs.
One swing by Caminero erased Alvarez’s lead Saturday. One swing by Alvarez restored it. Another swing Sunday could change it again.
There isn’t much track left, and nobody at the front has much room to stumble.
One RBI Separates Alvarez From CJ Abrams
The RBI race is just as close.
Alvarez’s sacrifice fly in the first inning Saturday gave Houston an early 1-0 lead. His eighth-inning homer provided his second RBI of the game and pushed his season total to 93.
That was enough to keep him atop the American League—but only barely.
CJ Abrams enters Sunday with 92 RBI, one behind Alvarez. Pete Alonso is another run back with 91. That leaves three hitters separated by two RBI heading into the final 26 games.
This is also the portion of the Triple Crown Alvarez controls least. He can hit with runners in scoring position, but he cannot put those runners there himself. Houston’s lineup has to give him opportunities.
Saturday illustrated both sides of that problem. Alvarez drove in Peña with a sacrifice fly in the first, then had nobody on base when he homered in the eighth. Two productive plate appearances produced two RBI; the second couldn’t produce anything more.
Over the course of a month, those opportunities can make the difference between leading the league and chasing somebody else.
Three Leads, Almost No Breathing Room
The margins tell the story: Alvarez leads Arraez by three points in batting average, Caminero by one home run, and Abrams by one RBI.
There is no category in which Alvarez can afford a prolonged slump while assuming his lead will survive. All three could change over the course of a good or bad series.
And Alvarez isn’t chasing history while playing out the schedule for a team whose season has already been decided.
The Astros are 68-68, yet somehow remain two games ahead of the Texas Rangers in the AL West after Houston, Texas, and Seattle all lost Saturday. Every game Alvarez plays during the final month will matter to two races at once.
That creates an unusual convergence. Houston needs Alvarez to keep producing because it is trying to reach October. Alvarez needs to keep producing because he is trying to accomplish something no player has done in 14 years.
Those goals aren’t competing with each other. They’re the same job.
Saturday was a particularly strange example. The Astros managed four hits in a 6-2 loss to the Mets. Alvarez had two of them and drove in both runs. Houston lost, its division lead somehow remained intact, and Alvarez strengthened his position in the Triple Crown chase.
Twenty-six games remain. Three batting-average points, one home run, and one RBI separate Alvarez from his closest pursuer in each race.
Yordan Alvarez is still in front.
Now comes the home stretch.
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