There are worse problems to have than a hitter opposing pitchers are increasingly unwilling to face. Every intentional walk to Yordan Alvarez gives the Houston Astros a free baserunner and another opportunity to score.
But the walks are also telling the Astros something about their lineup.
Alvarez has been intentionally walked 28 times this season, the most in Major League Baseball and a new Astros single-season record. Jeff Bagwell held the previous franchise mark with 27 in 1997. The record itself is impressive, but the way opponents are getting there is even more striking.
With a runner on second, first base open, and two outs this season, Alvarez has been intentionally walked in 14 of 18 such plate appearances—78 percent of the time. Opposing teams have now chosen to walk him in each of the last eight such situations.
For perspective, Barry Bonds was intentionally walked in 79 percent of those situations during his historic 2004 season. Alvarez isn’t approaching Bonds’ otherworldly total of 120 intentional walks that year, but in this one very specific situation, opposing managers are treating him almost exactly the way they once treated the most intentionally walked hitter in baseball history.
Their message is becoming increasingly clear: Yordan Alvarez isn’t going to beat us. We’ll take our chances with everyone else.
Oakland Took It Even Further
The Athletics intentionally walked Alvarez three times Sunday, matching the Astros single-game record. The first two followed a familiar script, with Oakland declining to pitch to him when a runner was already on second and first base was open.
Houston managed to punish the A’s once. Alvarez was intentionally walked with two outs in the third, and subsequent walks to Isaac Paredes and Jose Altuve forced in a run. In the sixth, with the game tied 6-6 and one out, Oakland put Alvarez on again. This time Paredes and Altuve were retired, and the threat disappeared.
Then came the eighth.
Houston trailed 7-6 with Taylor Trammell on first and two outs. There was no open base inviting the obvious intentional walk, but Oakland put Alvarez on anyway. The A’s were willing to move the potential tying run into scoring position simply to keep the bat out of Alvarez’s hands.
Paredes, who had already homered in the game, flied out to end the inning.
Oakland had deliberately created a more dangerous situation on the bases because it considered facing the rest of Houston’s lineup the safer choice.
The Safe Places in the Astros Lineup
That distinction matters. Paredes hasn’t exactly been an easy out. He entered the week hitting .260 with a .782 OPS and had been particularly productive recently, batting .349 with a .990 OPS over his previous 12 games. He had already homered Sunday.
Oakland still preferred its chances against him.
Astros radio analyst Steve Sparks described the larger problem to The Athletic this week as one of top-heavy lineups containing “safe” places for opposing pitchers to go. Alvarez’s intentional-walk record provides a particularly stark example.
Teams don’t have to attack every dangerous hitter in a lineup. They can pitch around the greatest threat and take their chances elsewhere. When that strategy works often enough, there is little reason to abandon it.
That makes the 28 intentional walks more than a measure of how much opposing teams respect Alvarez. They also reveal something about the lineup Houston has built around him.
Tuesday Showed the Alternative
The Astros offered a glimpse Tuesday night of what happens when those safe places become harder to find.
Against the Yankees, Houston collected 14 hits and scored nine runs. Yainer Diaz homered twice and drove in three. Jeremy Peña had two hits, including a two-run homer. Daulton Varsho drove in two runs.
And Alvarez got pitches to hit.
With two outs in the eighth and Peña on first, New York chose to face Alvarez. He ripped a triple to right field to score Peña and give Houston the lead. Paredes immediately followed with an RBI single to bring Alvarez home.
For one night, Houston’s offense made avoiding its most dangerous hitter considerably more complicated.
That is what the Astros need more consistently. Alvarez can keep chasing the Triple Crown and punishing pitchers willing to challenge him. But a lineup becomes much harder to navigate when avoiding one hitter merely leads to another problem.
Opponents have made their strategy clear. When there is a safer place to go, they’ll take it.
The Astros’ job is to give them fewer of those places.
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