Joe Espada didn’t build this roster. He didn’t sign Christian Walker to a contract that now complicates the infield. He didn’t let Framber Valdez walk to Detroit. He didn’t set the budget that left the bullpen thin heading into Opening Day. His hands have been tied at every turn. And yet, as the Houston Astros prepare to open the 2026 season, it is Espada’s seat that is warming.
Dayn Perry of CBS Sports placed Espada on his preseason hot seat list, a designation that even Perry acknowledged was difficult to justify on merit. “In no way does Espada deserve this,” Perry wrote, noting that Espada guided a flawed and injured roster to contention in 2025. The case against him isn’t really about managing, it’s about results in a results-driven business. A first-round sweep by the Detroit Tigers in his debut season. A missed playoff entirely in year two. In Houston, where the standard was set by seven consecutive division titles, that resume reads as underachievement regardless of context.
The context, though, matters enormously. The 2025 Astros were ravaged by injuries and stripped of Kyle Tucker in a trade that was Crane’s call, not Espada’s, with Yordan Alvarez’s absence and Tucker’s departure perhaps the two biggest factors in their failure to hold off the Seattle Mariners in the AL West. Espada kept them in contention deep into the summer with a roster that was running on fumes. That’s not the profile of a manager who has lost the room.
Perry pointed the finger where it more logically belongs. Owner Jim Crane’s inconsistent spending and what Perry called a “seeming distaste for continuity” are the root causes of Houston’s competitive erosion, not anything Espada has done in the dugout. Crane, of course, will not fire himself. General manager Dana Brown may also be in danger, and as Perry noted, if Brown goes, Espada likely goes with him.
The numbers offer Espada some hope. Scott Barzilla of The Crawfish Boxes recently illustrated that Houston’s offensive efficiency—the percentage of baserunners who score—fell to its worst mark of the dynasty era in 2025. Getting back to a more historically normal efficiency rate would theoretically be worth roughly three additional wins. In a division the Astros lost by a handful of games, three wins is the AL West title. New hitting coaches are the organizational response to that problem, and if they work, Espada gets the credit.
The roster still has real questions. The outfield of Jake Meyers, Joey Loperfido, and Cam Smith against right-handed pitching is a step back from Houston teams of recent vintage. The bullpen opens the season without both closer Josh Hader and setup man Bennett Sousa. The rotation beyond Hunter Brown, ranked among the top five starters in baseball entering 2026, is a collection of question marks, from Tatsuya Imai’s workload concerns to Lance McCullers Jr.’s durability to Spencer Arrighetti’s development.
But FanGraphs projects Houston at 80-81 wins with a 35% playoff probability, while PECOTA is considerably more optimistic at 85-77 with a 53% chance of reaching the postseason. The gap between those projections is essentially the injury variable—the same variable that derailed 2025.
If the Astros stay healthy, Espada has the pieces to contend. The decisions aren’t his, but if 2026 goes sideways, the consequences will be.
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