For months, the Astros have fought their way through a crowded AL West without ever managing to put much daylight between themselves and the pack. Now, with a two-game lead over the Rangers and nine straight home games against the three teams chasing them in the division, Houston finally has an opportunity to create some separation.
The stretch begins Friday against the Seattle Mariners, followed by three games apiece against the Angels and Athletics at Daikin Park. By the time the Astros leave Houston on Aug. 24, the AL West could look considerably different.
The timing couldn’t be much better. Texas dropped the final three games of a four-game series against the Angels, including a 7-0 loss Thursday, falling two games behind Houston. The Rangers now face the last-place Athletics, giving them an opportunity to recover, but the Astros no longer need help to take command of the division.
They just need to win.
After the homestand, the degree of difficulty rises immediately. Houston heads to Yankee Stadium for three games against the Yankees before crossing town for three against the Mets. From there, the schedule remains demanding, with series against the White Sox, Phillies, Rays, and Braves still ahead.
In other words, this is the portion of the schedule where the Astros need to make hay.
One Problem: Seattle
The opportunity begins with the one team Houston hasn’t been able to solve. Seattle may arrive at Daikin Park five games behind the Astros at 57-65, but the Mariners have won seven of the first eight meetings between the teams this season.
That makes this weekend more than an opportunity to beat a team below .500. The Astros have a chance to put additional distance between themselves and a division rival that has repeatedly frustrated them this season.
Seattle’s offense has struggled for consistency, and the Mariners managed just one run Thursday in New York. But that was enough behind six scoreless innings from Logan Gilbert and three scoreless innings from the bullpen to end their six-game losing streak.
Pitching Matchups
Friday’s opener features Peter Lambert against George Kirby. Lambert enters at 8-6 with a 3.09 ERA, while Kirby is 8-9 with a 3.68 ERA. Kirby gives the Mariners a quality arm to open the series, and Houston will need to take advantage when he gives them pitches to hit rather than wait for him to beat himself. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. Central.
Hayden Wesneski will take the mound Saturday against Emerson Hancock. Hancock has quietly put together a strong season for Seattle, giving the Astros another starter they can’t afford to let settle into an early rhythm. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. Central. The first 10,000 fans will also receive a Yordan Alvarez Home Run Train bobblehead, with one fan winning a special golden version and free gas for a year.
Sunday’s finale offers perhaps the most intriguing matchup of the weekend, with Hunter Brown facing Bryan Woo. Woo has been one of the strengths of Seattle’s rotation, while Brown gives Houston a chance to finish the series with one of its best arms on the mound. First pitch is scheduled for 6:20 p.m. Central.
What the Astros Need to Watch
Seattle’s record doesn’t make its lineup harmless. Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodríguez remain capable of changing a game with one swing, and the Mariners have already demonstrated that they don’t need to be at their best offensively to beat Houston.
The Astros’ pitchers need to avoid giving Seattle extra opportunities and keep traffic off the bases. Seven losses in eight meetings should be enough warning about allowing a struggling team to hang around.
At the plate, Houston’s challenge will be patience without passivity. Kirby, Hancock, and Woo give Seattle three legitimate starters, and the Mariners just showed what their pitching can do when a starter hands a lead to the bullpen: Gilbert and three relievers combined to shut out the Yankees on four hits Thursday.
A Chance to Build a Cushion
Nine games won’t decide the AL West, but they could change what the final month looks like.
The Astros have spent much of the season fighting just to reach the top of the division. Now they’re there, Texas has stumbled, and nine consecutive home games against the three teams below them in the West are waiting. After that, the road gets considerably harder.
Houston won’t get another opening this good. The opportunity to take control of the AL West starts Friday night.
