Ten Games In: Here’s Our Astros Opening Day Roster Projection

March 3, 2026

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Ten games into spring training, the Astros’ Opening Day roster is beginning to take shape.

With March 26 approaching and Houston coming off its first postseason miss since 2016, several roles are settled. Others remain fluid. Health, as always, will determine the ceiling.

The Rotation

Hunter Brown is set to start Opening Day for the first time in his career after finishing third in AL Cy Young voting last season.

Houston appears committed to a six-man rotation early, driven by a demanding stretch of 26 games in 28 days. Cristian Javier, Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows, Spencer Arrighetti, and Ryan Weiss currently project into those spots, though the exact order remains flexible.

Javier’s return is pivotal. After missing most of 2024 following Tommy John surgery and making eight late-season starts in 2025, the Astros are counting on him to approach his 2022 form, when he posted a 2.54 ERA and started the combined World Series no-hitter.

Imai, signed to a three-year, $54 million deal in January, has impressed in camp. Burrows provides mid-rotation stability. Arrighetti is working back from injury. Weiss arrives from the KBO with durability but still must prove his stuff translates consistently against major league hitters.

Lance McCullers Jr. and Kai-Wei Teng remain depth options.

Projected rotation: Brown, Javier, Imai, Burrows, Arrighetti, Weiss.

The Bullpen

The biggest question marks in the bullpen are now plural.

Closer Josh Hader remains limited to playing catch after biceps inflammation disrupted his spring, though Joe Espada said Tuesday that Hader could throw a bullpen session as early as next week “if everything goes as planned.” The Astros have not committed publicly to his Opening Day availability. Given that Hader also missed significant time last season with a shoulder capsule sprain, durability is a fair concern. If he opens on the injured list, Bryan Abreu would shift back into the closer role, a move that worked reasonably well last year when Abreu posted a 2.28 ERA across 70 appearances, but one that would thin Houston’s late-inning depth.

Nate Pearson has now joined the watch list. Signed to a one-year deal in October after compiling a 5.17 ERA in 123 career appearances—all but six in relief—Pearson had been stretching out for a potential rotation role. Elbow soreness following a bullpen session, however, forced the Astros to slow his progression. There is no clear timetable for his return, placing his Opening Day status in legitimate doubt.

Bryan King, Steven Okert, and Bennett Sousa appear secure. Roddery Muñoz’s Rule 5 status gives him a strong path to a roster spot. Enyel De Los Santos, sidelined by a right knee strain earlier this spring, is scheduled to throw a bullpen Wednesday. Espada expressed cautious optimism that De Los Santos can build up quickly after remaining active in winter ball.

The Lineup

The core is unchanged: Jeremy Peña, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Yainer Diaz, and Christian Walker will be in the lineup on Opening Day.

Alvarez is the swing factor. Limited to 48 games last season by hand and ankle injuries, he is the engine of the offense. His health matters more than his spring stat line.

Isaac Paredes remains the roster’s most complicated piece. With Correa at third, Peña at short, Altuve at second, and Walker at first, there is no clear everyday spot. Absent a trade, Paredes projects as a high-end utility option who will start multiple times per week.

Nick Allen slots in as the primary utility infielder. Cavan Biggio is competing for a bench role.

Projected everyday core: Peña, Altuve, Alvarez, Correa, Diaz, Walker.
Bench: Paredes, Allen, Biggio (if he wins the job).

The Outfield

This remains the most unsettled area.

Jake Meyers is the presumptive center fielder after posting a 103 OPS-plus season, though he has not been formally named the starter. Cam Smith enters as the frontrunner in right field after a strong defensive rookie campaign but must reduce his strikeout rate.

Left field is unresolved. Zach Cole, Joey Loperfido, and others are competing, but through ten games no one has clearly separated.

Houston’s search for a left-handed bat continues. Until a trade materializes or someone forces the issue internally, this will be the defining competition of the final three weeks of camp.

The Bigger Picture

Houston is not rebuilding, but it is recalibrating.

The 2025 season exposed how thin the margin becomes when health falters. Thirty-three pitchers were used. Alvarez, Paredes, Peña, and Meyers all missed significant time.

The additions of Imai, Burrows, Weiss, and Pearson deepen the staff. The offense still has real question marks, particularly in the outfield.

Ten games in, the outline is visible. The remaining weeks will determine whether this roster stabilizes before Opening Day.