The Houston Astros missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2016, and the reaction from the pundit class has been swift and unsparing. Sports Illustrated’s stress index puts them in the “Aiming for October” tier—a polite way of saying they’re no longer assumed to be contenders. Bleacher Report labeled Christian Walker’s contract the worst in the organization. The outfield situation has been called everything from unsettled to a mess. The Astros also finished 21st in runs scored in 2025.
So is this roster as bad as advertised? Or is the pessimism getting ahead of itself?
The Case for Concern
Start with the offense. Losing Framber Valdez in the offseason to the Detroit Tigers hurts, but the bigger issue heading into 2026 is what surrounds Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve in the lineup. Walker hit .238 with a .717 OPS last season—his worst year in five—and posted minus-seven defensive runs saved, a jarring number for a three-time Gold Glover. He’s 34, in the second year of a three-year, $60 million deal, and there aren’t many takers if the Astros want out.
The corner outfield situation is legitimately unsettled. Taylor Trammell has never hit above .200 in the big leagues. Joey Loperfido is still developing. Zach Cole has pop but a limited track record. None of them inspires confidence as an everyday starter, and the Astros finished 21st in runs scored last season with this same general group.
Add Josh Hader opening the season on the injured list, Jeremy Peña nursing a fractured finger, and a bullpen whose strong 2025 numbers were partly propped up by luck—several relievers, Bryan King chief among them, stranded baserunners at rates that are historically difficult to sustain, per Scott Barzilla’s underlying numbers analysis at The Crawfish Boxes. Some regression there would not be surprising, and it adds another layer of uncertainty.
The Case for Optimism
Here’s what the pessimists are underrating: this rotation.
Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, and Mike Burrows have combined for 27⅓ scoreless innings this spring with 36 strikeouts. Brown is an ace. Imai arrives with elite underlying numbers from Japan and has looked better with each outing, touching 98.5 mph after a rubber adjustment in his last start. Burrows has been the most pleasant surprise of camp, throwing 12⅔ scoreless innings while developing his slider as a weapon against left-handed hitters. If those performances translate even partially into the regular season, the Astros’ rotation could quickly become one of the deeper groups in the division.
The bullpen, stripped of its luck-dependent contributors, has Bryan Abreu—and that’s no small thing. Abreu has been one of the most reliable arms in the Houston bullpen for years, missing bats at an elite rate and consistently stranding runners at levels that suggest genuine skill rather than random variance. He’s been saving this team’s bacon in high-leverage situations long before he was handed closing duties. The catch: he’s in the final year of his contract, which makes this season something of a farewell tour if the two sides can’t work out an extension. That’s a problem for another day, but it’s worth keeping in mind. Hader, when healthy, remains one of the best closers in baseball. Kai-Wei Teng has been a victim of poor batted ball luck for three straight years and is overdue for positive regression. Bennett Sousa, the quietest name on the staff, generates chase rates that suggest more sustainability than King or Steven Okert.
And the offense deserves more credit than it’s getting. Alvarez at DH is still one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. Carlos Correa stabilizes the middle of the lineup and the infield. Altuve remains one of the game’s smartest hitters. Walker, whatever his flaws, still hit 27 home runs and drove in 88 runs in a down year, numbers that would look just fine on most rosters. And Peña, fractured finger notwithstanding, is expected back soon. And if he’s not, Correa can slide over to shortstop and the lineup still functions.
The outfield competition, for all the hand-wringing, has produced some genuine spring surprises. Trammell is slashing .318/.423/.636 with a homer and five RBIs. Cam Smith has been sharp in right field. Loperfido has found his swing going the other way. For a group that entered camp full of question marks, the early returns have been encouraging.
The Verdict
This isn’t a dynasty roster. The days of Verlander, Cole, and Greinke anchoring a juggernaut feel like a long time ago, and they were. The margin for error is slimmer than it’s been in a decade, and the AL West—with Seattle, Texas, and the Angels all improved—isn’t going to hand Houston anything.
But the general skepticism surrounding this roster is overblown. The rotation is deeper and more talented than it looked in November. The bullpen has real weapons. The lineup, at its core, is still built around two of the best hitters in the American League. If the pitching holds, and if even one of the outfield candidates develops into a reliable everyday option, this team has more than enough to be playing in October.
There’s plenty here worth believing in. For a team that has spent nearly a decade setting the standard in the American League, the idea that the window has already slammed shut may be a little premature. Go get ’em, ‘Stros.