The Houston Astros did not commit $54 million to Tatsuya Imai hoping the right version would show up every fifth day. They signed him to stabilize the middle of their rotation. Twelve starts into his Major League Baseball career, that stability remains elusive.
Imai’s slider is, by his own admission and by the accounts of those who catch him, an unpredictable pitch. It breaks to his glove side like a conventional slider some nights and the wrong way on others. Hitters cannot always read it. Pitch-tracking systems struggle to classify it. Even Imai is not always sure where it will end up.
His season has looked much the same.
When Imai is on, he is nearly untouchable. He dominated Cleveland and Detroit in consecutive starts, striking out 21 batters without issuing a walk. He helped combine on a no-hitter against Texas. On those nights, the Astros look as though they found exactly the frontline starter they envisioned when they signed him.
Then there are the other nights.
Wednesday’s outing against the Twins was another reminder of why Imai remains one of the biggest question marks on Houston’s roster. He recorded just four outs, walked five batters, allowed five runs, and left before the second inning was complete. It marked the fourth time in 12 starts that he failed to complete three innings.
Those outings have become more than isolated disappointments. They are costing the Astros games.
A dominant performance every few weeks cannot erase the damage created by an early collapse. Every time Imai exits before the third inning, the bullpen absorbs the burden. Relievers are overextended. Matchups disappear. The effects often carry into the following series. For a club chasing a division title, those costs add up quickly.
“I think it won’t be a perfect day every day,” Imai said through an interpreter. “So whenever I don’t have the stuff, it’s how much I can throw at least five innings, be able to perform with that bad stuff.”
That is exactly the issue.
The Astros do not need perfection from Imai. They need competence on the nights when his best stuff is missing. Instead, his floor remains alarmingly low. His ERA sits above 6.00 not because he lacks dominant outings, but because the disastrous ones are severe enough to erase much of the good he has done.
Wednesday’s explanation centered on his slider. Imai said it failed to tunnel with his fastball the way it had during his previous start in Detroit, allowing hitters to recognize it earlier.
“Even when I was throwing it, I felt like the slider didn’t look like a fastball,” Imai said. “I couldn’t throw it like a fastball, and that’s probably why the hitter was able to hit it or make contact with it.”
After reviewing video, Imai pointed to another adjustment. His feet were set wider in his pre-pitch stance than they had been against Detroit.
“That was one thing that I noticed, so for the next outing I want to try and focus on just the position in general and how wide the feet are going to be when I stand,” he said. “That’s probably a key point for the next outing.”
Perhaps it is.
But mechanical explanations are beginning to pile up. So are the poor outings. Imai also spent weeks on the injured list earlier this season with arm fatigue, interrupting any momentum he had built. Whether the cause is mechanics, command, health, or some combination of all three, the result has been the same: too many starts that are effectively over before the Astros have a chance to settle into the game.
Manager Joe Espada remained publicly supportive afterward, citing Imai’s recent success and expressing confidence that he would rebound. The Astros have little choice but to believe he will.
But belief is no longer enough.
Houston signed Imai expecting a dependable rotation piece, not a pitcher capable of looking like an ace one week and a replacement-level arm the next. The talent is undeniable. So is the inconsistency.
The Astros are now 12 starts into a $54 million investment. At some point, flashes of brilliance have to become the norm instead of the exception. Until they do, Imai’s season will remain defined less by how dominant he can be than by how much damage he does when everything falls apart.
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