Every time a hitter strikes out with runners in scoring position, the reaction from the stands is immediate and predictable. Shorten the swing. Put it in play. Stop swinging for the fences.
New research suggests it may not be that simple.
A study recently published in The American Statistician, co-authored by Scott Powers and Ron Yurko, took a hard look at whether hitters should adjust their swings when they have two strikes. Powers brings some relevant credentials to the question. Before joining Rice University as an assistant professor of sport analytics and statistics, he spent several years running analytics for the Dodgers before moving to Houston as the Astros’ assistant general manager. He has two World Series rings to show for it.
Using MLB swing-tracking data released publicly in 2024, Powers and Yurko studied bat speed and swing length to examine how hitters change their approach as the count deepens. What they found was a tradeoff.
“When players slow down their swings, they do make more contact, but they also sacrifice power,” Powers said. “The takeaway from this is that it’s not clear batters get better results by slowing down their swing speed as the number of strikes increases.”
The gains and losses largely canceled each other out, which may surprise anyone who has spent time shouting at their television. Hitters who shorten their swings with two strikes do reduce their strikeout rate, but the corresponding loss of power means the overall results are roughly a wash.
There is a wrinkle, however. The study found that the most effective hitters with two strikes manage to make their swings more compact without giving up any bat speed—a much harder thing to do than simply slowing down. Powers cited Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez as someone who does this better than almost anyone in the game.
Powers said that during his time in MLB front offices, debates about two-strike approaches were constant, especially after high-profile strikeouts in big moments.
“When I was working for the Dodgers, every time one of our batters would strike out in a big situation, I would get texts from my friends complaining about the approach of the batter,” Powers said. “But I never understood. Is the batter actually trying to swing for the fences?”
The newly available swing-tracking data finally gave researchers a way to dig into that question. The study’s findings also carry a broader lesson about how baseball data gets interpreted—faster swings appeared at first glance to produce better contact, a counterintuitive result that required careful statistical work to untangle.
“You can’t just take swing-tracking metrics at face value,” Powers said. “You have to think carefully about how these things are being measured and what they mean.”
For Astros fans, the connection to Powers adds a local angle to a study with implications well beyond Houston. The next time your hitter strikes out with two strikes and the bases loaded, the answer may be more complicated than it looks.
Heading to Daikin Park soon? Check the Astros promotions schedule before your next game.
