If you’re going to chase the fight, you might want to pick up the pace.
MLB.com released its annual team projections Thursday, slotting the Houston Astros into Tier 5—what it calls the “.500 zone”—alongside the Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, Rangers, Rays, and Reds. Their projection: 81-81. A coin-flip season for a franchise that hasn’t had a losing record since 2014.
To its credit, MLB.com acknowledged the shock value. “You’re shocked that the Astros, a team that hasn’t had a losing record since 2014, are merely in the ‘.500 zone’ tier,” the site wrote. But the placement wasn’t entirely unreasonable, either.
The cracks were visible before spring training began. Framber Valdez, the heart of the rotation for years, is gone to Detroit. Josh Hader’s biceps have kept him off a mound all spring. Jeremy Peña fractured the tip of his right ring finger in a World Baseball Classic exhibition game Wednesday and is seeing a hand specialist Friday. Nate Pearson’s elbow has slowed his throwing program to a crawl. The outfield is thin. The infield has too many bodies and not enough answers.
And spring training has done little to quiet the concerns. The offense has sputtered all Grapefruit League, the injury list keeps growing, and Thursday’s 2-0 shutout loss to the Marlins was just the latest reminder that this team has yet to find its footing.
The Astros won 87 games last year and still missed the playoffs by one game. That number represented their lowest winning percentage since 2016, and it came with Peña having his best season and Valdez still in the building—all while Yordan Alvarez was limited to just 48 games due to injury. The margin for error in 2026 is even thinner.
None of this means the projection is destiny. This franchise has made a habit of proving doubters wrong, and Joe Espada’s “Chase the Fight” mantra was presumably built for moments exactly like this one. Hunter Brown is a legitimate ace. Yordan Alvarez, when locked in, changes everything. The farm system is deeper than it has been in years.
But right now, three weeks from Opening Day, 81-81 does not feel like an insult. It feels like a challenge.
The question is whether this group has enough fight left in it to chase it down.