WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — The Astros rebuilt their rotation this winter with an eye toward both the present and the future. They signed Japanese standout Tatsuya Imai and KBO veteran Ryan Weiss. They traded top prospects for right-hander Mike Burrows. They’re preparing to deploy a six-man rotation to manage workloads and protect young arms.
But all that offseason construction hinges on one variable: Can Cristian Javier stay healthy and pitch like the ace he was in 2022?
“I think he’s that one guy that, if we can see the Javi we saw in 2022, it’d be huge for our club,” manager Joe Espada said Thursday. “And I think we can get him there.”
The math is simple. Houston’s additions brought upside but limited major league experience. Imai and Weiss have yet to throw a pitch in MLB. Burrows is entering his first full big-league season. Spencer Arrighetti made just seven starts last year because of injuries.
That leaves Hunter Brown and Lance McCullers Jr. as the only rotation arms with extended track records — and McCullers is entering the final year of his contract after multiple injury setbacks. Javier, when right, offers something Houston desperately needs: a proven starter with postseason experience.
Finding His Way Back
Thursday marked Javier’s first live batting practice of camp. The session featured multiple swing-and-misses — an encouraging sign, even if it’s just one early checkpoint.
Javier hasn’t looked like the 2022 version of himself since combining on two no-hitters that season, including one in the World Series. His ERA climbed to 4.56 in 2023. Injuries limited him to just 15 appearances over the next two seasons while he rehabbed his elbow.
He returned last August after a 15-month absence. The results were uneven — a 4.62 ERA across eight starts — but there were signs of progress. His fastball velocity ticked back up to 92.9 mph after dipping to 91.7 the previous year. Three of his final five starts lasted at least six innings.
Javier said early struggles stemmed from mechanical inconsistencies. This offseason, he focused on refining his delivery and stride direction.
“With every outing, my confidence started to grow,” Javier said through an interpreter. “And with every outing and every repetition I started getting to the point where I wanted to be and to the point where I was before the surgery.”
Now, he believes he’s there.
“My body feels 100 percent right now and I feel great, feel healthy for the season.”
The Valdez-Sized Hole
Replacing Framber Valdez isn’t just about innings. For four consecutive seasons, Valdez led the Astros in innings pitched and anchored the front of the rotation. He and Javier signed out of the Dominican Republic on the same day in 2015 and celebrated a World Series title together in 2022.
Valdez signed a three-year, $115 million contract with Detroit this month, leaving Houston without one of its most reliable arms.
“Yeah, we were used to him,” Javier said. “He was a lot of fun. He was a great person to have in the clubhouse. … He’s going to be missed.”
High Stakes, High Expectations
Javier signed a five-year, $64 million extension in 2023. The Astros invested in him as a frontline starter. After two injury-disrupted seasons, they need him to deliver like one.
“There’s always a bit of doubt, and it takes time to get back to that level,” Espada said. “But after having a nice healthy offseason, his work was what we expect it to be. He’s finding himself in a really good spot. We really need Javi to step up and we believe he’s going to do that.”
Javier isn’t shying away from that responsibility.
“Yes, of course,” he said. “I’m going to trust God, leave it in the hands of God, but just be confident that I’m going to be that pitcher. There’s no doubts.”
For Houston’s rotation to stabilize, that confidence will need to translate into results.