HOUSTON, TEXAS — September 22, 2025 — With only six games remaining in the regular season, the Houston Astros’ journey to the postseason is a tense sprint to the finish line. After a decisive sweep by the Seattle Mariners, who seized control of the AL West, the team is now focused on securing a wild card spot.
Right now, the Astros would not hold a wild card spot. They are tied with the Cleveland Guardians for the final berth, but the Guardians hold the regular-season tiebreaker by head-to-head record, leaving the Astros on the outside looking in. They must now post a better record over the final week than one of the three teams ahead of them in the wild card standings: the Guardians, Detroit Tigers, and Boston Red Sox.
The Task at Hand
The Astros’ objective is clear: They must win as many games as possible. Their path is a fortuitous one, as their final two series are against the two worst teams in the AL West by record, the Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels.
The Scenarios for Victory
- Scenario 1: Win and You’re In: The most direct route to the postseason is for the Astros to win more games than the Guardians, Tigers, and Red Sox over the final six games. If the Astros can sweep their three-game series against the Athletics, who have a losing record, they will put significant pressure on the other contenders.
- Scenario 2: Getting a Little Help: A more likely outcome is that the Astros will need help. Luckily for Houston, the Tigers still have series against both the Guardians and the Red Sox. The results of those matchups could open a path for the Astros, regardless of their own record.
The Tiebreaker
If the Astros end the season with the same record as the Guardians, Tigers, or Red Sox, a tiebreaker is required. Based on their regular-season matchups, the Astros do not hold the tiebreaker against any of these teams. This makes their final six games absolutely critical, as a tie in the standings means they will be eliminated from the playoff race. As Carlos Correa said, “We’ve just got to go out there and get some wins.”
The Astros’ season isn’t over yet, but their playoff destiny is now a day-by-day battle.